Pakistan at the Crossroads of Climate-Induced Migration: Understanding Risks and Building Resilience

Abstract

In the contemporary era, one of the defining drivers of mass human displacement, uprooting communities and disrupting the livelihood of millions across the world is climate change. In Pakistan, the fragile geography, minimal adaptive capacity, and deep-rooted socio-economic vulnerabilities are positioning the country among the top ten countries of climatic emergency. This study employs a quantitative approach to identify and analyse a complex yet interlinked interaction between climate change, particularly flood-related disasters, and the internal displacements in two of the most susceptible regions of Pakistan; areas of South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur and DG Khan districts) and Sindh’s Coastal Belt (Malir, Sujawal and Badin districts). Evidently, there is a long history of recurring riverine floods in the Southern Punjab, however, the disaster of 2022 in the Sindh’s coastal area highlights the region’s first exposure to climate triggered by coastal flooding that displaced thousands. The analysis of the situation of both regions portray a concerning picture of uprooted populations, trapped in vicious cycles of loss, where years of efforts invested in building homes and sustain their livelihood can be destroyed within moments. For the analysis, to understand the magnitude of loss, vulnerability, and the assessment of this risk among these regions, this study relies on the flood related data collected by Pakistan Meteorological Department, The Urban Unit, Pakistan Disaster Management Authority, UNHCR Pakistan and the Ministry of Climate Change. Additionally, this study forecasts the future vulnerability score and adaptation potential of six districts in Punjab and Sindh and provides some grass-root level interventions to increase resilience across districts. The finding of this study reveals, the vulnerability in the Southern Punjab is being exacerbating with recurring floods, low literacy rate among communities, extensive reliance on agriculture for sustainability, and fragile infrastructure. On the flip side, the situation of Coastal areas of Sindh is even inferior, widespread dependency on fishing and agriculture, flimsy housing, lower literacy rate and inadequate adaptive capacity contributed to amplifying the effects of even a single flood in 2022. The conclusion indicate that floods are more than recurring natural hazard, they are a critical test of preparedness and resilience building among the communities. Remarkably, the flood induced displacement is triggered by a natural phenomenon but the challenges faced by affected population are aggravated by man-made structuring conditions such as socio-economic profile of a region and the insufficient responses of the government. These structuring conditions such as absence in prompt flood response, challenging socio-economic conditions, insufficient infrastructure, ineffective adaptation mechanism and negligible resilience building, collectively reshape the livelihood patterns of affected communities. Furthermore, this study contends that vulnerability in a particular region is not fixed conditions. Future displacement and associated loss can be substantially reduced through effective early warning system, targeted capacity-building measures, improved infrastructure, and a swift response of government. Ultimately, this study calls for an evidence-based adaptation strategy that centre the voices of impacted communities while moving beyond short-term humanitarian relief measures.